Somewhere on A1A...

Wednesday, March 26, 2003

Not to be missed is MEMRI's translation of Iran and the War In Iraq by Ayelet Savyon, Director of the Iranian Media Project. She discusses three reasons why Iran is against the war and two reasons why they can support it. Its application for most of the region, including the Arab World, makes it important. However, the Arab preoccupation with Israel is not mentioned. Most of the Arabs have tunnel vision on the "Zionist problem," while the Administration tries to keep it as a separate issue. But on the whole of Savyon's analysis still fits:

Reasons Against the War
A. The American Presence on Iran's Borders Constitutes a Threat to the Iranian Regime and Its Interests
B. Fear of Losing Shi`ite Primacy Should the Iraqi Regime Change
C. The U.S. Wants to Control the Oil Resources - Against Iran and Saudi Arabia

Reasons in Support:
A. The Need to Strip Iraq of Its Weapons of Mass Destruction
B. The Need to Prepare for the Future

Iran is right to be concerned about the American presence being a threat to its power, but NOT from direct American intervention, internal disruption is the real threat. They also have a real worry in wondering what Iraq's Shi'ite population will do, I don't think anyone can predict that. Go read it yourself.


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