7/31/2002 11:06:00 AM
by Ocean Guy
More war plans vs. Iraq are in the news. A debate rages over whether or not Al Queda is present in Iraq. The debate on weather, elections, and operational urgency continues as to their effect on timing the attack. And then, today, Thomas Friedman weighs in with his thoughts on how a second Iraqi war will affect the worlds' oil markets. His looks at two possibilities which would give us two extremes in oil prices.... but other scenarios are becoming more and more likely.
The situation in Saudi Arabia is the most interesting. Dissension in the ruling Royal family, all while the House of Saud attempts a tightrope walk between the two sides of the War on Islamists. America is on the verge of ignoring Saudi Arabia, Europe is worried over the possible loss of their business deals, (which would mean dismantling the Western settlements… ok, compounds). For the first time in a generation there is real doubt about how long the current regime can hang on.
Syria is begging to have a regime change forced upon them, which loosens its grip on Lebanon.
Iran is on the verge of a new popular revolution which will likely mean friendlier relations with the US.
The Gulf States, especially Qatar, are seeing more cooperation with the US while they dish out and take Saudi criticism.
Iraq is in the center of it all and is about to be invaded.
The Middle East is a tinder box, train wreck waiting to happen, a ticking time bomb, a powder keg.... Anyway, you get the picture. There is much more to think about and anticipate than $6 or $60 per barrel oil. The upside potential is tremendous if things change to our favor throughout the region. The downside, however, doesn't look a whole lot different from today’s situation.
High oil prices, instability in the region and along Islam’s borders, a growing split between America and its European allies, and a continued threat to Israel’s existence….. Add to that the potential of Iraq (and Iran) joining the list of nuclear capable nations, and the confidence that further appeasement gives to Islamism, and it makes you wonder what’s taking us so long!